Wheat Falls 1.3% on Russia-Ukraine Deal Hopes as Corn and Soybeans Edge Higher Ahead of Tuesday's WASDE Report

After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Apr 17, 2023What are the deals on Ukraine, Russia grain exports? | Reuters+7.8%
• May 17, 2023What are the deals on Ukraine, Russia grain exports? | Reuters-1.4%
• Jul 27, 2026Soybeans and corn fall more than 2% as oil drops, wheat also down | ZAWYA-2.4%
• Jun 16, 2026Corn, Wheat And Soy All See Prices Drop On Prospect Of US-Iran Deal | ESM Magazine-0.9%
• Feb 21, 2021Ukraine, Russia ink deal to export grain on Black Sea+0.7%

After 16 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (13% higher; middle half -4.3% to -1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Nov 1, 2022Wheat futures tumble after Russia rejoins Black Sea grain corridor deal - Fastmarkets-2.2%
• Jul 14, 2022Wheat, soybeans fall on expectations of progress in Ukraine shipping talks - Supply Chain Council of European Union | Scceu.org+0.4%
• Oct 22, 2026Russia's promise to resume negotiations with Ukraine led to a speculative 2.5% decrease in wheat stock exchange quotes in one day.-3.4%
• Oct 29, 2026CBOT wheat falls to 3½-month low on peace hopes | Adalytica-2.3%
• Oct 23, 2026Todd Hubbs Crop Market Update Analyzes Southern Plains Wheat, Global Grain Volatility - Oklahoma Farm Report-2.9%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Feb 24, 2022Wheat, soybeans hit nine-year highs as Russia invades Ukraine+6.5%
• Mar 21, 2022U.S. wheat, corn, soy rally on concerns about Ukraine-Russia fighting | Financial Post+1.5%
• Jan 31, 2022Russia-Ukraine Tensions Drive Global Wheat Prices Higher+0.6%
• Feb 24, 2022Export issues ahead as Russia invades Ukraine: Analyst’s insight | AHDB+6.5%
• Feb 28, 2022Wheat Continues Surge on Black Sea Supply Concerns as Ukraine-Russia Crisis Continues+10.4%

After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.

• Feb 24, 2022Wheat, soybeans hit nine-year highs as Russia invades Ukraine+0.1%
• Mar 21, 2022U.S. wheat, corn, soy rally on concerns about Ukraine-Russia fighting | Financial Post+2.5%
• Feb 28, 2022Wheat Continues Surge on Black Sea Supply Concerns as Ukraine-Russia Crisis Continues+5.4%
• Feb 22, 2022Grains, soybeans rally on fear of Russia-Ukraine conflict, surging oil | Reuters+2.7%
• Mar 9, 2022USDA Factors Russia-Ukraine War in Latest WASDE Report-2.7%