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Chicago soybeans fell 2.8%, corn fell 2.9% and wheat fell 1.5% on Monday after crude oil dropped more than 7%. The US and Iran paused strikes after two weeks of attacks, raising hopes of de-escalation and a resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Wheat had reached a two-year high on Friday.
Lower crude weakens the biofuel link that supports soybeans and corn. Russia-Ukraine attacks on ports still constrain Black Sea grain flows, which limits downside for wheat.
zawya.comNaveen Thukral, Michael HoganJul 27, 2026After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Corn fell 2.9% on Monday alongside a >7% crude drop on US-Iran de-escalation and hopes for reopened Hormuz shipping, matching the move size.
