
CME grain futures sold off sharply on Feb. 25, 2022, with May wheat down 75 cents to $8.59, May corn down 34 cents to $6.55, and May soybeans down 69 cents to $15.84.
Soymeal and soyoil also declined, and crude oil and equities moved lower and higher respectively.
Profit-taking after the Russia-Ukraine war spike pushed grain and oilseed prices down sharply, with soyoil weakness linked to vegetable oil markets. Feed buyers should watch whether the war premium continues to unwind or re-emerges.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.