
Soybean futures closed sharply lower and fell to their lowest since February 28 as energy and agricultural markets slid and stocks rallied. Traders appeared to expect a ceasefire in Ukraine, so the war premium was leaving the market quickly.
China also plans to release 500,000 tons of soybeans from state reserves.
Easing war-risk premiums and Chinese state reserve releases add supply and reduce the bid for soybeans and meal, pressuring feed ingredient prices lower.
After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.