China's most powerful weapon in Trump trade war may backfire

After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Jan 20, 2017Boeing and beans on China's blacklist if US trade tensions worsen-1.9%
• Sep 24, 2026US farmers push for China commitments on imports as Trump and Xi talk trade-1.9%
• Mar 28, 2017Pork and beans could take brunt of China-U.S. trade dispute-3.4%
• May 31, 2019Target Trump's base if trade spat worsens, Mexican farm lobby says | Farmtario-2.3%
• Jul 15, 2020China's yuan firms on weaker dollar but renewed Sino-U.S. worries cap gains | Financial Post+1.6%

After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Jan 20, 2017Boeing and beans on China's blacklist if US trade tensions worsen-1.7%
• Mar 28, 2017Pork and beans could take brunt of China-U.S. trade dispute-2.4%
• Mar 30, 2022SOYBEANS: May Have Taken Out Too Much War Premium; Demand Remains Strong — The Hightower Report-0.4%
• Jun 4, 2020Traders’ optimism for canola is short lived - Manitoba Co-operator+0.9%
• Dec 2, 2025Market Snapshot | Black Sea tensions spur rally in grains - Pro Farmer-2.4%