China's yuan firms on weaker dollar but renewed Sino-U.S. worries cap gains

After 10 past bearish geopolitics events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.2%), and -0.8% over 20.

• Jun 15, 2026China’s Yuan Hit A Three-Year High As The Dollar Slipped - Finimize+0.2%
• Jan 20, 2025China’s yuan rises to over two-week high on positive US-China talk, better economic data - Markets - Business Recorder-1.0%
• Mar 8, 2022Credit Suisse's Pozsar says commodities crisis could weaken Eurodollar, boost yuan+0.7%
• Jan 23, 2026China sets yuan at strongest rate in years as Greenland furore affects US dollar | South China Morning Post-0.3%
• Jun 15, 2026China's yuan hits three-year high as dollar eases after US-Iran peace deal | MarketScreener+0.2%

After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• May 27, 2020Yuan slumps to 9-mth low on Sino-U.S. tensions, corporate dollar demand | Financial Post+0.4%
• Feb 14, 2018China's most powerful weapon in Trump trade war may backfire+2.2%
• Jul 31, 2020Gathering US-China storm clouds herald restless time for yuan - Gulf Times-1.2%
• Jan 20, 2017Boeing and beans on China's blacklist if US trade tensions worsen-1.9%
• Feb 16, 2018ASA: Proposed Steel Tariffs Raise Potential for Retaliation Against U.S. Soybeans - American Soybean Association+1.2%