
The onshore yuan strengthened to a three-year high of 6.7573 per dollar after reports that the US and Iran struck a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The PBOC set its daily midpoint at 6.8088, weaker than model estimates, to temper gains.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would ease energy prices and reduce dollar demand as a safe haven, lowering input costs for feed production while the yuan's strength supports Chinese import capacity.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 10 past bearish geopolitics events, USDCNY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.2%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The yuan's three-year high of 6.7573 on US-Iran deal hopes set a low base for USD/CNY, so the later rebound in the pair partly reflects reversal from that extreme; the PBOC's weaker midpoint also tempered gains.