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Chinese stock markets fell sharply on April 25, 2022, with the CSI 300 closing nearly 5% lower on renewed lockdown concerns. The yuan also plunged, and oil dropped below $100 on worries over Chinese demand.
Lockdown-driven slowdown in China cuts expected demand for feed grains, oilseeds and meat, and lower oil prices reduce biofuel and freight cost support.
bloomberg.comAbhishek VishnoiApr 25, 2022After 14 past bullish geopolitics events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Same-day lockdown angst in Beijing/Shanghai triggered a CSI 300 plunge of nearly 5% and a yuan sell-off, which directly explains the outsized 1-day CNY move (sentiment/risk aversion).
