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Fitch Solutions expects strained U.S.-China relations to keep Beijing limiting soybean and other farm purchases from the U.S. in 2022. Brazil is expected to gain share in the Chinese market, including in meat and cotton.
Reduced Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans is bearish for U.S. soy prices, while Brazil's gains in China add supply competition that weighs on global export prices.
bloomberg.comJasmine NgJan 18, 2022After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
