Ahead of the Trump-Xi summit on Sept 24-25, US farmers are pushing China to commit to more soybean, grain and meat purchases and to ease retaliatory tariffs. Analysts expect the two sides to recommit to earlier purchase targets without new deals.
Lack of new commitments means continued reliance on Brazilian supply for China, keeping US export demand uncertain and capping US soybean price support.
After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.