China's yuan reached a three-year high as the dollar eased after a reported US-Iran peace deal. The deal is seen as a path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
A reopened Strait of Hormuz would lower energy prices and reduce dollar safe-haven demand, which could ease pressure on commodity costs and freight, while a stronger yuan can support Chinese buying power for feed imports.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 10 past bearish geopolitics events, USDCNY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.2%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.