
The rupiah strengthened 0.91% to 17,698 per dollar on June 15 after the US and Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts said domestic fiscal risks would now drive the currency's direction, and Brent fell to around $84.
Reopening Hormuz lowers energy costs and eases pressure on Indonesia's import bill, supporting the rupiah and reducing feed cost pressure from fuel.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.