The dollar was heading for its largest weekly drop since January as currencies gained on hopes the Gulf ceasefire would hold and oil shipping would resume. Markets were awaiting the outcome of US-Iran talks in Islamabad.
Resumed oil shipping would ease energy prices, while a weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated grain and meal purchases cheaper for importers.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 33 past bearish geopolitics events, DXY moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.2%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.