
Global stocks rose and the dollar dipped after Trump dropped tariff threats against eight European countries and ruled out seizing Greenland by force. Gold hit a record high on safe-haven demand, and the euro and sterling gained against the dollar.
Easing trade risk lowers the chance of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. farm exports and weakens the dollar, which supports dollar-priced feed commodities. The effect on grain prices is modest while the agreement details remain unresolved.
After 33 past bearish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.2%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 18 past bullish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (83% higher; middle half +0.9% to +2.0%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.