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The dollar dipped from multimonth highs as Middle East optimism eased safe-haven demand. Options markets showed traders at their most bearish toward the euro in at least a year.
Easing conflict fears reduce the oil risk premium and can soften the dollar. Lower energy prices would ease cost pressure on feed and fertilizer markets.
reuters.comGertrude Chavez-DreyfussMar 4, 2026After 33 past bearish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.2%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
