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Oil prices dropped sharply after Iran's retaliation against a U.S. military base in Qatar was limited and telegraphed. Prices fell further after Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire.
The episode suggests Middle East tensions have less lasting impact on crude than before, so risk premiums are unwinding and energy input costs for feed are easing.
reuters.comRon BoussoJun 25, 2025After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Limited, telegraphed Iranian retaliation and the ceasefire announcement drove prices lower as the supply-risk premium faded.
Prices dropped because Iran's retaliation was limited and telegraphed, with the ceasefire announcement adding to the decline; the ceasefire part falls partly outside the June 23 window.
Oil dropped on the limited, telegraphed Iranian retaliation and then the ceasefire, which lowered the supply-risk premium.
