
Oil prices fell sharply to two-week lows on May 6 as reports said the US and Iran were nearing an initial peace deal, with Pakistan acting as mediator and Iran reviewing a US proposal. Brent settled down $8.60 (7.83%) at $101.27 after dipping below $100 for the first time since April 22, and WTI lost $7.19 to $95.08.
A prospective end to the Middle East war would ease fears of lost Gulf supply, pushing crude lower. Lower crude reduces diesel and energy costs for feed production and transport, and can weaken biofuel-linked demand for vegetable oils.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reports of a near US-Iran peace deal triggered a $8.60 one-day Brent drop to about $101, directly driving the sentiment-led decline as the risk premium for Gulf supply disruption was removed.