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March WTI crude closed up 2.9% on January 27 to a three-month high, with gasoline at an eight-week high. The rally was supported by a slump in the dollar index to a nearly four-year low and by concerns over possible US military action against Iran.
Russia's stance on Ukraine peace talks was also cited as supportive.
A weaker dollar makes crude cheaper for non-US buyers and supports energy prices, while Iran supply risk adds upward pressure on fuel and fertilizer costs for feed producers.
barchart.comRich AsplundJan 27, 2026After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 33 past bearish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.2%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
