Oil prices rose more than 4% to their highest in over two months after reports that the US was preparing to evacuate its Iraqi embassy over security concerns. Brent settled at $69.77 and WTI at $68.15.
Rising Middle East tensions lift crude prices, which increases energy and freight costs for feed producers. Ongoing OPEC+ supply increases partly offset the upward pressure.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On June 11 oil rose over 4% to a two-month high on US embassy evacuation fears in Iraq, which started the weekly rally.
On June 11 oil rose over 4% to a two-month high on reports of a US embassy evacuation in Iraq, which contributed to the early-week gain in the 5-day window.
Brent rose 4% on June 11 to a 2-month high on US embassy evacuation reports, which raised the base for the later spike and fed the 5-day window.
Oil rose more than 4% to a two-month high on June 11 as the US prepared to evacuate its Iraqi embassy, building the risk premium earlier in the window.