
Traders bought the most $80 WTI call options since January after Israeli strikes on Iran raised fears of a wider Middle East conflict. WTI settled 7.6% higher at $72.98 after trading as high as $77.62 intraday.
Options positioning points to expectations of further crude gains, which would raise diesel and freight costs for feed buyers and could support soybean oil through biofuel economics.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
WTI settled 7.6% higher with an intraday spike to $77.62 and heavy call buying, showing the geopolitical risk premium and sentiment behind the move.
WTI settled 7.6% higher after an intraday high of $77.62, with heavy $80 call buying showing the risk premium building.