Oil Rises as Mideast Tensions Sustain Supply-Disruption Fears

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jan 7, 2020US, Iran tensions: Oil traders fear supply disruptions in Middle East-7.8%
• May 27, 2019Oil up more than 1% on Mideast tensions and supply cuts-9.0%
• Feb 1, 2020Oil Pares Gains as Plentiful Supply Tempers Libya Disruption-6.0%
• Apr 15, 2018Bullish forecast for oil prices as Middle East tensions rise+2.0%
• Jul 31, 2026Supply Disruptions Underpin Crude Oil Prices-4.9%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Jan 7, 2020US, Iran tensions: Oil traders fear supply disruptions in Middle East-8.1%
• May 27, 2019Oil up more than 1% on Mideast tensions and supply cuts-8.5%
• Feb 1, 2020Oil Pares Gains as Plentiful Supply Tempers Libya Disruption-2.4%
• Apr 15, 2018Bullish forecast for oil prices as Middle East tensions rise+1.4%
• Jul 31, 2026Supply Disruptions Underpin Crude Oil Prices-7.4%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jun 13, 2025Traders pile into $80 US oil bets as tensions rise in Middle East+15.6%
• Mar 20, 2026Oil jumps to highest settlement since July 2022 as more Mideast supply disrupted | Reuters-1.8%
• Mar 5, 2026Asia refining margins rocket to highest in nearly 4 years on Hormuz supply disruption | Reuters+12.0%
• Jul 23, 2026Oil settles over $100 as Houthi attacks intensify Middle East supply risks | Reuters+0.7%
• Mar 1, 2026WTI oil prices jump on fears Iran retaliation will hasten disruption+36.4%