Asia refining margins rocket to highest in nearly 4 years on Hormuz supply disruption

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Mar 20, 2026Oil jumps to highest settlement since July 2022 as more Mideast supply disrupted | Reuters-1.8%
• Oct 28, 2025Global refining margins soar as sanctions threaten Russian supplies | Reuters-1.4%
• Oct 2, 2026Oil Rises as Mideast Tensions Sustain Supply-Disruption Fears+8.4%
• Sep 29, 2018Brent hits 4-year high as U.S. sanctions on Iran tighten supply+1.6%
• Mar 4, 2026Oil settles at highest in over a year for second straight day as Iran crisis escalates, snarls Hormuz flows | Reuters+6.1%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Mar 20, 2026Oil jumps to highest settlement since July 2022 as more Mideast supply disrupted | Reuters+0.8%
• Jun 29, 2018Oil hits new multi-year high as market tightens on lost supply+0.2%
• Oct 2, 2026Oil Rises as Mideast Tensions Sustain Supply-Disruption Fears+7.5%
• Feb 19, 2025Oil holds near one-week high on supply concerns, sanctions on Russia eyed | Reuters-4.1%
• Feb 13, 2023Oil edges higher as market weighs Russian supply cuts amid demand fears | Reuters-4.0%

After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, SBO moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Mar 2, 2026Oil Prices Surge as Hormuz Disruptions Threaten Global Supply, Analysts Warn - Bloomberg+4.6%
• Mar 12, 2026Brent Oil Tops $100 as Persian Gulf Disruption Hits Global Supply - Bloomberg-5.5%
• Jun 28, 2018Oil trades near three-year high as Libya crisis tightens supply-1.9%
• Mar 9, 2026Instant View: Oil surges 20% as Iran war fuels supply fears | Reuters-0.7%
• Mar 3, 2026Global oil and gas prices soar as Iran crisis disrupts shipping, production | Reuters+1.0%