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Global refining profits reached their highest in 20 months, with Singapore's complex refining margin near $9 a barrel. Diesel strength followed US sanctions on two major Russian suppliers and tighter supply expectations.
Higher refining margins signal tight diesel supply after the Russia sanctions, which raises fuel and freight costs for grain and feed logistics. Refiners may run harder to capture margins, but the net effect is upward pressure on diesel prices.
reuters.comJeslyn LerhOct 28, 2025After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
