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EU sanctions on Russia are expected to reshape global diesel flows and affect Indian refiners. Diesel demand remains strong in the US, India and China, and US consumption is nearly 5% above last year's level.
Sanctions-driven shifts in diesel trade keep distillate prices firm, raising freight and farm fuel costs for feed supply chains.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.