Diesel market jumps on fear new sanctions may hit Russian supply

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jul 28, 2025EU Russia sanctions add fuel to red-hot global diesel market-4.4%
• Jan 17, 2025Global diesel prices spike as US hits Russia with new sanctions-3.6%
• Oct 23, 2025Oil markets rally following US sanctions on Russian oil giants+6.9%
• Oct 29, 2025Diesel rally sparked by Western sanctions on Russia will be short-lived | Reuters+2.6%
• Oct 28, 2025Diesel Prices Jump on Russia Sanctions and Refinery Outages - Bloomberg-1.4%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jan 17, 2025Global diesel prices spike as US hits Russia with new sanctions-4.1%
• Oct 23, 2025Oil markets rally following US sanctions on Russian oil giants+4.1%
• Feb 19, 2025Oil holds near one-week high on supply concerns, sanctions on Russia eyed | Reuters-4.1%
• Oct 23, 2025Oil price jumps and FTSE 100 hits new high after Trump puts sanctions on Russian firms | Oil | The Guardian+4.1%
• Jun 29, 2018Oil hits new multi-year high as market tightens on lost supply+0.2%