Diesel rally sparked by Western sanctions on Russia will be short-lived

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jan 13, 2025Diesel market jumps on fear new sanctions may hit Russian supply | Sparta+4.9%
• Jul 28, 2025EU Russia sanctions add fuel to red-hot global diesel market-4.4%
• Oct 28, 2025Diesel Prices Jump on Russia Sanctions and Refinery Outages - Bloomberg-1.4%
• Jan 17, 2025International Diesel Prices Surge After U.S. Sanctions on Russia | OilPrice.com-3.6%
• Oct 23, 2025Oil markets rally following US sanctions on Russian oil giants+6.9%

After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.

• Oct 28, 2025Diesel Prices Jump on Russia Sanctions and Refinery Outages - Bloomberg-0.4%
• Dec 2, 2022OPEC+ decision on oil quotas muddled by Russian sanctions | S&P Global-12.1%
• Nov 12, 2025Diesel Margins Rally as Russian Exports Plunge - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company+0.6%
• Oct 28, 2025The Commodities Feed: Sanction concerns boost diesel prices | ING THINK-0.4%
• Jun 23, 2025Update: oil prices fall back after short-lived surge in early trading - FreightWaves-11.9%