Update: oil prices fall back after short-lived surge in early trading

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Sep 15, 2019Oil prices likely to surge at Sunday's opening after a "different" type of Saudi Arabia disruption - FreightWaves+5.7%
• Feb 24, 2022Ukraine fallout: Diesel surges more than crude before falling back - FreightWaves+25.9%
• Aug 24, 2026Diesel Prices Surge, Spot Rates Plunge: Why Trucking Costs Are Disconnected - FreightWaves-2.9%
• Dec 26, 2023After dropping for 8 weeks, benchmark diesel price turns higher - FreightWaves-3.9%
• Sep 16, 2019Oil out of the gate: higher by 11-14% for key benchmarks, but diesel prices lag - FreightWaves+5.7%

After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.

• Dec 3, 2025Vegetable oil prices rose slightly after falling in the previous week-0.7%
• Mar 9, 2022Oil falls as investors weigh U.S. import ban-22.0%
• Sep 16, 2019OPEC says too early for any action on oil after Saudi attacks+5.8%
• Apr 1, 2022Soybean oil prices have fallen, but palm and sunflower oil prices remain high 01.04.2022 - UkrAgroConsult-4.4%
• Aug 22, 2022Oil pares losses after Saudi oilmin says OPEC+ has options including cuts+0.9%

After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.

• Mar 9, 2022Oil falls as investors weigh U.S. import ban-21.5%
• Sep 16, 2019OPEC says too early for any action on oil after Saudi attacks+6.6%
• Apr 1, 2022Soybean oil prices have fallen, but palm and sunflower oil prices remain high 01.04.2022 - UkrAgroConsult-6.9%
• Aug 22, 2022Oil pares losses after Saudi oilmin says OPEC+ has options including cuts+4.6%
• Apr 29, 2026In five charts: How UAE's exit could affect Opec's influence over the oil price-1.9%