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Oil benchmarks rose 11 to 14% when trading opened Sunday evening following drone attacks on the Saudi oil industry. Brent was up 13.8% at $68.54 a barrel, WTI rose 11.9% to $61.38, and RBOB gasoline climbed about 11.5%.
ULSD diesel gained only about 10%, to $2.0655 a gallon, lagging the rest of the crude complex.
Crude's sharp gain signals a major supply shock, and diesel's smaller move still leaves transport and fuel costs higher for feed logistics. Diesel's relative lag may narrow as physical markets tighten.
freightwaves.comJohn KingstonSep 16, 2019After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Brent jumped about 14% at the Sunday evening open on the Saudi supply loss.
Shows the Sunday-evening open with Brent up about 13.8%, the initial reaction that set the day's move.
Describes the Sunday evening open with ULSD up about 10% as crude rallied on the Saudi attacks, though dated a day after the move window.
