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The DOE/EIA retail diesel price fell 9.5 cents to $4.498 a gallon, while CME ULSD futures rose a combined 11.93 cents over two days after the Hamas attack on Israel. WTI and Brent each rose about 4.3% on the first day of the reaction.
Geopolitical risk lifted crude and diesel futures, which feed into wholesale fuel costs, though retail prices lag and fuel surcharges have not yet followed. The futures gains could eventually pass through to freight and farm fuel costs.
freightwaves.comJohn KingstonOct 10, 2023After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
