
The EIA weekly average diesel price rose 1.8 cents to $3.567 a gallon, ending three weeks of declines. ULSD futures rose after the US increased sanctions on Iranian oil shipments and threatened a 25% tariff on buyers of Venezuelan crude, though much of the spike faded by the close.
Sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan crude tighten available oil supply, which supports diesel prices and surcharges for feed freight. The gain was short-lived, so the price impact was small.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.