
The U.S. benchmark retail diesel price rose for a third straight week, to $3.602 a gallon. CME ULSD futures gained about 18 cents in three trading days after new sanctions on Russian oil shipping were announced by the U.S. and UK.
The rise in the benchmark diesel price increases fuel surcharges and trucking costs for feed deliveries. The sanctions-driven futures rally suggests further upside if the supply concerns persist.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
CME ULSD futures gained about 18 cents in three days after sanctions, confirming the futures-led price surge.