Diesel benchmark down again, futures markets up amid Red Sea tension

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jan 13, 2025Benchmark diesel price up for third week as oil futures markets soar again - FreightWaves+2.7%
• Oct 7, 2024Diesel benchmark up a few cents; futures prices soar on Mideast concerns - FreightWaves+1.2%
• Apr 8, 2024Benchmark diesel price heads higher; so do world oil markets - FreightWaves-0.2%
• Oct 10, 2023Benchmark retail diesel price falls, but Israeli conflict boosts futures - FreightWaves+0.6%
• Dec 26, 2023After dropping for 8 weeks, benchmark diesel price turns higher - FreightWaves-4.5%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jan 13, 2025Benchmark diesel price up for third week as oil futures markets soar again - FreightWaves+4.9%
• Mar 31, 2025Benchmark diesel price up for second straight week, futures markets rise sharply - FreightWaves-7.6%
• Mar 24, 2025Benchmark diesel price up first time in 3 weeks, futures markets edge higher - FreightWaves+0.5%
• Oct 7, 2024Diesel benchmark up a few cents; futures prices soar on Mideast concerns - FreightWaves+1.6%
• Apr 8, 2024Benchmark diesel price heads higher; so do world oil markets - FreightWaves-1.9%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.