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The US benchmark diesel price used for most fuel surcharges rose for a second week, with the EIA average at $3.592 a gallon. CME futures rose sharply on March 31, with ULSD settling at $2.314 and WTI above $70 for the first time since February 27.
Reports tied the move to Trump's anger at Putin and possible secondary tariffs on Russia-linked oil.
Threatened sanctions on Russian crude and products could tighten diesel and crude supply, lifting fuel surcharges that feed-buyers pay on freight. The move also signals that diesel costs may be bottoming.
freightwaves.comJohn KingstonMar 31, 2025After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
