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Diesel prices have risen steadily since early July while spot truckload rates have fallen, creating a divergence in trucking costs. Analysts attribute the diesel pressure to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and record crack spreads.
Rising diesel costs with softening freight rates squeeze carrier margins and fuel surcharges, which can raise delivered costs for feed shipments.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.