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Diesel prices could jump more than 20% overnight after drone strikes on Saudi Arabia removed nearly half of its oil production, about 5% of global supply. Oil futures opened Sunday evening with first trades up more than 20%.
The national average ULSD truckstop price was $2.98 a gallon, and officials said restoration could take weeks.
A roughly 5% overnight global supply shock is historically large and pushes diesel and freight costs sharply higher. Fuel surcharges and hauling costs for feed and grain shipments would rise quickly.
freightwaves.comCraig Fuller, CEO at FreightWavesSep 16, 2019After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Notes oil futures opened Sunday evening up more than 20% on the Saudi outage.
Shows futures opening more than 20% higher on the loss of nearly half of Saudi output, consistent with the supply shock.
Notes oil futures opened Sunday evening sharply higher after the Saudi strikes, indicating the expected pass-through to diesel, but it is mostly forward-looking commentary.
