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Diesel futures jumped about 20% in early trading on February 24 after Russia invaded Ukraine, briefly topping $3 a gallon on CME. Brent rose about 8% at the open but later settled into a smaller gain, and diesel pulled back as reports suggested Russian gasoil exports were not disrupted.
Russia is a major diesel exporter to Europe, so supply fears lift distillate prices sharply, and the spike in crude adds upward pressure on diesel and feed-transport costs.
freightwaves.comJohn KingstonFeb 24, 2022After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
