ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI crude surges more than 5% as Russia launches military operations in Ukraine

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Mar 1, 2022Oil futures: Crude, fuel prices surge as Ukraine conflict pushes NYMEX WTI well past $100/b+24.3%
• Nov 22, 2024Oil gains more than 5% for the week as Ukraine war intensifies-3.0%
• Feb 22, 2022Canadian dollar firms as oil surges on rising Russia-Ukraine tensions - The Globe and Mail+5.3%
• Mar 21, 2022Crude jumps more than 7% as EU mulls Russian oil ban+10.3%
• Apr 11, 2025Brent, WTI prices climb more $1 on possible Iran crude restriction | Reuters+7.5%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Mar 1, 2022Oil futures: Crude, fuel prices surge as Ukraine conflict pushes NYMEX WTI well past $100/b+23.6%
• Feb 24, 2022Ukraine fallout: Diesel surges more than crude before falling back - FreightWaves+18.2%
• Nov 22, 2024Oil gains more than 5% for the week as Ukraine war intensifies-1.7%
• Mar 21, 2022Crude jumps more than 7% as EU mulls Russian oil ban+9.5%
• Apr 11, 2025Brent, WTI prices climb more $1 on possible Iran crude restriction | Reuters+6.7%

After 327 past geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.9% to +7.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Mar 1, 2022Oil futures: Crude, fuel prices surge as Ukraine conflict pushes NYMEX WTI well past $100/b+33.1%
• Feb 24, 2022Ukraine fallout: Diesel surges more than crude before falling back - FreightWaves+25.9%
• Dec 1, 2025Oil climbs more than 1% on OPEC action, Ukraine attack+1.5%
• Sep 19, 2025Crude oil trades lower as Trump pledges support for post-war peace between Russia and Ukraine - The HinduBusinessLine+3.6%
• Sep 11, 2026Oil surges 6%, Brent and US crude both surpass $100 on more tanker attacks | Reuters+0.6%