Oil surges 6%, Brent and US crude both surpass $100 on more tanker attacks

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Apr 2, 2026US crude jumps more than 11%, Brent nearly 8% after Trump vows more attacks on Iran | Reuters-2.2%
• Jul 1, 2019Oil's Surge on Tanker Attacks Muted by Demand Fears-1.4%
• Aug 30, 2026Oil settles up by more than 2.5% as US and Iran resume military attacks | Reuters+9.6%
• Sep 15, 2019Brent crude oil spikes the most in history after Saudi attacks+5.8%
• Jul 23, 2026Oil prices surge to $100 per barrel after Red Sea attacks-7.9%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Apr 2, 2026US crude jumps more than 11%, Brent nearly 8% after Trump vows more attacks on Iran | Reuters-2.8%
• Jul 1, 2019Oil's Surge on Tanker Attacks Muted by Demand Fears-4.2%
• Aug 30, 2026Oil settles up by more than 2.5% as US and Iran resume military attacks | Reuters+10.8%
• Sep 15, 2019Brent crude oil spikes the most in history after Saudi attacks+6.6%
• Jul 23, 2026Oil prices surge to $100 per barrel after Red Sea attacks-9.5%

After 327 past geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.9% to +7.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Apr 2, 2026US crude jumps more than 11%, Brent nearly 8% after Trump vows more attacks on Iran | Reuters-2.9%
• Sep 15, 2019Brent crude oil spikes the most in history after Saudi attacks+5.7%
• Mar 23, 2026Brent Below $100 on Oil, Fuel Swing; US Cites Iran Talks-2.4%
• Jun 23, 2025Oil settles down 7% after Iran attacks US military base in Qatar, not tankers-9.7%
• Jul 23, 2026Oil settles over $100 as Houthi attacks intensify Middle East supply risks | Reuters+0.7%