
Brent crude jumped as much as 19.5% at the open after a coordinated attack on Saudi oil facilities knocked out 5.7 million bpd, about half of the kingdom's output. Brent settled up 14.6% at $69.02 and WTI rose 14.8% to $62.90.
The largest supply shock on record tightens global crude and fuel markets, raising diesel, freight and fertilizer costs for feed producers.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Brent's record spike after the Saudi attacks removed about 5.7 million bpd of supply, the direct driver of the move.
Saudi attacks on 2019-09-15 knocked out 5.7 million bpd and triggered a record Brent spike at the open, the direct supply shock that lifted ULSD on the move date.