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Oil prices rose sharply after Trump said the US would hit Iran extremely hard over the coming weeks and gave no clear exit plan. Brent briefly topped $109 a barrel, and stock markets in the US, Europe and Asia fell.
Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have largely halted since the war began on 28 February.
Higher crude prices raise diesel and fertilizer costs and can lift biofuel-linked demand for vegetable oils. Hormuz disruption also tightens energy and fertilizer supply for feed producers.
bbc.comOsmond ChiaApr 2, 2026After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
