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Oil prices rose sharply Monday as U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and Iranian retaliatory strikes against Israel and U.S. military installations around the Gulf disrupted the global energy supply chain. Traders bet that Middle Eastern oil supply would slow or halt.
Expectations of halted Gulf supply lift crude prices, raising fuel and freight costs and pressuring feed producer margins.
apnews.comCathy BussewitzMar 1, 2026After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
AP report of sharp oil price rises Monday on US/Israeli attacks and Iranian retaliation disrupting energy supply.
Corroborates the sharp rise on the strikes and retaliation, with traders pricing in slowed or halted Middle East supply.
US-Israeli attacks and Iranian retaliation prompted traders to price a halt in Middle East supply.
