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The US-Israel military conflict with Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20% of global oil demand and roughly a quarter of traded nitrogen fertilizer. Diesel futures hit a two-year high, and New Orleans urea barges traded $520-550/ton, up from $475.
Phosphate prices also rose about $30/ton.
Strait closure disrupts fertilizer and energy flows, raising farm fuel and nitrogen costs and supporting feed grain prices through higher input costs and tighter supply.
farmpolicynews.illinois.eduRyan HanrahanApr 1, 2026After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Dated on the move day, it reports the Strait of Hormuz closure, which cuts a quarter of traded nitrogen fertilizer supply and sent New Orleans urea barges up from $475 to $520-550/ton, directly explaining the 8.43% jump.
Hormuz closure from the Iran conflict lifted fertilizer and energy prices, with phosphate up about $30/ton, a supply and input-cost shock that plausibly drove DAP higher.
Dated 2026-04-01, the Hormuz closure raised phosphate prices about $30/ton, a supply and cost shock that plausibly fed into DAP strength in the window.
