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Crude oil jumped as much as 12% after the joint US-Israel attack on Iran, then trimmed gains as ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted. Hard red winter wheat and soybean oil held gains while corn and soybeans slipped.
Higher crude lifts biofuel demand expectations for soybean oil and raises fertilizer and freight costs, while Hormuz disruption threatens fertilizer supply. Feed buyers face higher input costs through energy and fertilizer channels.
profarmer.comBill WattsFeb 28, 2026After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
