
Brookings analysis links the June 22 OPEC decision to the highest oil prices since 2014. Drivers include Venezuelan production losses, 360,000 bpd of Canadian oil sands outages, and expected reductions in Iranian exports after U.S. sanctions return in November.
Expected Iranian export losses and Venezuelan declines keep crude supply tight, supporting energy prices that drive biofuel and transport costs.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.