U.S., European thirst for fuel sends physical oil prices soaring

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Jul 2, 2018What higher oil prices mean for OPEC and the U.S. | Brookings-0.3%
• Oct 1, 2026Oil prices rise $3 as China suspends fuel exports-2.3%
• Oct 1, 2026Oil prices rise as U.S. reportedly prepares to send third carrier to Mideast-2.3%
• Jan 29, 2019Oil prices up two percent following U.S. sanctions on Venezuela+5.2%
• Mar 3, 2026Iran War Sends Diesel Prices Soaring All Over the World on Supply Chokepoints - Bloomberg+33.1%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jul 2, 2018What higher oil prices mean for OPEC and the U.S. | Brookings-3.1%
• Feb 24, 2022European gas prices soar and oil tops $105 after Russia attacks Ukraine+18.2%
• Oct 1, 2026Oil prices rise $3 as China suspends fuel exports+2.6%
• Oct 1, 2026Oil prices rise as U.S. reportedly prepares to send third carrier to Mideast+2.6%
• Jan 29, 2019Oil prices up two percent following U.S. sanctions on Venezuela+4.3%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2026Oil prices rise $3 as China suspends fuel exports-3.7%
• Oct 1, 2026Oil prices rise as U.S. reportedly prepares to send third carrier to Mideast-3.7%
• Jan 13, 2025Benchmark diesel price up for third week as oil futures markets soar again - FreightWaves+4.9%
• Mar 3, 2026Iran War Sends Diesel Prices Soaring All Over the World on Supply Chokepoints - Bloomberg+17.7%
• Jul 29, 2026Middle East strikes and shrinking US crude stocks send oil prices up-9.4%