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Brent crude jumped 4.4% to $102.31 a barrel on Thursday after reports that the US is sending a third aircraft carrier group and up to 10,000 troops to the Middle East. The WSJ reported that President Trump expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterm elections.
Escalating US-Iran conflict raises the risk of disruption to Gulf oil flows, lifting crude and diesel costs that feed into feed milling, freight and energy-intensive processing.
cnbc.comSpencer Kimball, Sam Meredith, Justina LeeOct 1, 2026After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
WSJ report of a third US carrier group and up to 10,000 troops, plus expected resumption of Iran bombing, raised the Middle East supply-risk premium and sentiment, driving Brent up on the day.
