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US crude rose about 5% on Thursday, its third straight daily gain, after President Biden commented on whether the US would support an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities. WTI was on track for its best weekly gain since March 2023.
Fears of retaliation against Iranian oil infrastructure and possible Hormuz disruption add a significant risk premium that raises energy and freight costs for feed buyers.
cnbc.comSpencer KimballOct 3, 2024After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Biden's comments on a possible Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities pushed crude about 5% higher on Oct 3, adding to risk premium.
