
WTI hit a session high of $87.67 and Brent reached $92.18 after reports that Israel was preparing a direct attack by Iran. WTI settled 64 cents higher at $85.66 and Brent at $90.45, and the US embassy in Jerusalem restricted staff travel.
A possible direct Iran-Israel strike threatens regional oil supply and could push Brent sharply higher. Higher crude raises diesel and freight costs that flow into feed prices.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.