
US crude jumped more than 3% to close above $77 a barrel as the market awaited a possible Israeli strike on Iran's oil industry. Brent also rose, and both benchmarks had posted their biggest weekly gains since early 2023.
Expectations of a strike on Iranian oil that could disrupt Hormuz flows keep crude elevated, raising energy and transport costs in the feed sector.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.