GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP | Oil prices rise $3 as China suspends fuel exports (updated)

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2026Oil prices rise $3 as China suspends fuel exports+2.6%
• Nov 14, 2025Oil settles up more than 2% as Russian port suspends oil exports after Ukrainian attack | Reuters+1.5%
• Apr 16, 2024Oil prices hold firm as U.S. weighs added sanctions on Iran oil exports after attack on Israel-3.7%
• Sep 19, 2019Oil prices rise as Saudi supply risks come into focus-2.4%
• Sep 30, 2026Oil prices rise by about $1/bbl on stalled US-Iran talks and tight fuel markets - CNA+3.9%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2026Oil prices rise $3 as China suspends fuel exports-2.3%
• Nov 14, 2025Oil settles up more than 2% as Russian port suspends oil exports after Ukrainian attack | Reuters+0.8%
• Apr 16, 2024Oil prices hold firm as U.S. weighs added sanctions on Iran oil exports after attack on Israel-2.8%
• Sep 19, 2019Oil prices rise as Saudi supply risks come into focus-3.0%
• Sep 30, 2026Oil prices rise by about $1/bbl on stalled US-Iran talks and tight fuel markets - CNA+0.1%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2026Oil prices rise $3 as China suspends fuel exports-3.7%
• Sep 30, 2026Oil prices rise by about $1/bbl on stalled US-Iran talks and tight fuel markets - CNA-6.2%
• Oct 1, 2026Oil prices rise as U.S. reportedly prepares to send third carrier to Mideast-3.7%
• Mar 29, 2019Oil prices rise amid OPEC's ongoing supply cuts, U.S. sanctions+2.1%
• May 30, 2022U.S., European thirst for fuel sends physical oil prices soaring+9.9%